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How likely is it that you'll die today?

Started by Malson, September 24, 2011, 07:22:05 AM

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Dwarra?

Well seeing as you have more posts than him and its been 5 years since he actually had any activity. No he doesn't affect the hill at all. Also the hill doesn't exist because it isn't relative to RMRK.
Everyone knows crankeye.org was the golden age.

Malson


Dwarra?

He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

SirJackRex

 
Quote from: Scalinger2 on September 25, 2011, 07:45:07 PM
Technically you would have a higher 'chance' of winning if you had more tickets because more of the pool is in your favor. The problem is, even if you bought thousands, or maybe even millions of tickets, there's just so many more tickets other people are purchasing that they still would most likely get it since there is still a large margin other then you. The concept I was getting at is if, well, if you won the first one, even if the mean amount between high chance and first chance is same percent chance, if you kept investing all your money over and over, eventually the chance would rise and it would create a wave effect. It would create an exponential effect, it would be low chance initially to win but over time it would be easier. Realistically though, if you kept winning, other people would lose faith and stop buying tickets so eventually it would be you regurgitating your own money.
I don't think you understand how the lottery works, you misunderstood completely what I said, and apparently you don't understand what you asked in your previous post.

regarding your final sentence: No, because if there are multiple winners the jackpot is split. Faith will never be an issue, though, because the I think people would be more likely to participate in the lotto if the jackpot is higher. On the off chance that too few people do participate, you will presumably lose money.

I think it's imprudent to invest all of your money into guaranteeing winning the lotto, anyhow. If you're able to spend $175,711,536 in a single go, do you really need the additional money?

Malson

Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 04:18:37 AM
He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

When he left. Him and Fu.

It probably lasted like, a week, but it was the best this place had ever seen.

Mushu

Well, you could also just say (probability x jackpot) and that would get you the "net earnings" or w/e like they say in statistics.
It comes out to a very small number, smaller then the cost of the lottery ticket, therefore saying that it's not worth trying.
That's the con of the lottery but the pro I was saying earlier I guess I asked it wrong. It probably wouldn't work that way either like I said because there's a lot of factors with the lottery. Even if you did win a couple times and kept re-investing in it you wouldn't be gaining nearly as much as the beginning anyways.

Dwarra?

Quote from: Malson on September 26, 2011, 05:01:26 AM
Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 04:18:37 AM
He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

When he left. Him and Fu.

It probably lasted like, a week, but it was the best this place had ever seen.
I'll agree, also Rasse and Chewey still posted ;9

SirJackRex

#32
Not necessarily, but basically yeah, you're right. You're probably able to determine ideal times at which to go "all in" in order to increase your chances of high profit, but in the end you don't know how it's going to be split or what the final jackpot will be. I also don't know how it's taxed, which can really fuck up your winnings.

I have no idea what the expected value is, but it's probably so small such that you can't abuse the system, or it's impractical to abuse the system. Maybe even if you were to abuse it, the MegaMillions is still taking in the profit, effectively covering their asses.

Going back to my long-time stance, it's not worth it.

Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 05:40:18 AM
Quote from: Malson on September 26, 2011, 05:01:26 AM
Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 04:18:37 AM
He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

When he left. Him and Fu.

It probably lasted like, a week, but it was the best this place had ever seen.
I'll agree, also Rasse and Chewey still posted ;9

Wait who is Dalton? Before my time I guess or did he/she change names? Rasse and Chewey were so awesome. I miss them.

Malson

Death                                                                                                                                             Trooper

Moss.


:tinysmile::tinysmile: