@chewey - Africa != South Africa
But realistically, people who obey Catholicism by not using condoms are generally not going to disobey Catholicism by being promiscuous, considering the latter is considered a far more serious sin. Also, he hasn't said that using condoms increases the risk of HIV, he's said that exclusively promoting condoms can increase the problem of HIV in society. What I take that to mean is simply that he thinks a better way to address the problem would be to discourage risky sexual behaviours such as having multiple partners or encouraging monogamy and fidelity. I think there's a difference between saying "never have sex" and "only have sex with one person," and I don't think the latter is as impractical as you claim. I think where, he says that it can increase the problem, he means only that exclusively preaching, "as long as you use condoms, you can do anything you want with anybody you want" is not an effective strategy, especially considering that in many of these communities, many women have very little power to resist sexual advances or to insist on condom use. He could very well be wrong, and I don't think he's right in discouraging the use of condoms; I also think that imposing Western sexual norms such as monogamy on other cultures is a form of cultural suppression and may not be a good solution, but I don't think it's fair to blame the AIDS crisis in Africa on the pope.