The RPG Maker Resource Kit

Well, I have the answer!

Based off of calculations I made out of curiosity, and with the help of the CIA World Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html), I have determined the relative likelihood of your very own demise!

Let's begin with the statistics:

QuotePopulation:
313,232,044 (July 2011 est.)

Death rate:
8.38 deaths/1,000 population (July 2011 est.)

From these we can figure out the number of deaths per year:

313,232,044 * .00838 = 2,624,884.53

And then, the number of deaths per day:

2,624,884.53 / 365 = 7,191.46447

And finally, dividing the number of deaths per day by the total population will yield the percentage we're looking for!

7,191.46447 / 313,232,044 = 2.29589041 * 10^-5

And our final percentage is...

[spoiler]0.00002%[/spoiler]

So next time you're embarrassed, or pissed off, and you wish your respective god or higher being would show you mercy and smite you where you stand, remember that percentage!

Thank you, and enjoy!

PS: These odds are based off of USA population information, and therefore apply strictly to the United States. Anyone outside the country may experience different chances of death. You have been warned.

Since being dead and being alive are binary options, you could also say that you have a 50% chance of being dead at any given millisecond. Not to mention being here at all: Think of the actual odds of being the chosen sperm that has fertilized the chosen egg, resulting in the improbability that is you~

Well, sure that works on a national basis for the U.S., but how about on a worldwide basis (I bet it's quite similar though)?
A quick search yields that the current world population is roughly 6,959,054,865 (Sep 1. estimate), and the death rate is roughly the same: 8 deaths/1,000 population.
Plugging those numbers into your method, the number of deaths per year is 6,959,054,865 * (8 / 1 000) = 55,672,438.9
And the number of deaths per day (using 365.25 to account for leap years):
55,672,438.9 / 365.25 = 152,422.831
And, finally, everyone's individual chance of dying:
152,422.831 / 6,959,054,865 = 0.0219028063
That's roughly a one in 5000 chance.

You should have multiplied the first equation, not divided it. You're looking for 8/1000 of the original number.

   You also have to realize that not only did your sperm get picked, but also all the generations before you. So it's astronomical that we exist yet at the same time it's not because it just happened the way nature meant it to, someone had to be picked.
It's almost like a mini form of evolution because it's the fastest one that makes it. That's like the Zerg in Starcraft where every one of their cells gets hunted down by other cells and the ones that survive make the creature. The funny thing also is that if you look at 'net' existence, chance of birth and death, it's true that it is very easy to be optimistic about it since it's less likely to be born then die.

Glad to know I have such a low chance of dying today! I was worried I was going to die since I'm currently falling out of the sky with no parachute.

just try to hit the top of the hill, irock. you'll hit the slip and slide and it should redirect your momentum downhill thus avoiding fall damage.

I managed to land on Djang and have my fall cushioned.

I'll leave it to Irock to determine the probably of RMRK going downhill today.

I noticed that error after a while, Malson. Thanks for pointing it out though. I redid the calculation for a more cozy result.
Anyway, some quick research shows that "RMRK is going downhill", and that Biohazard is gone.
Considering both of those facts, we create a paradox, seeing that there is no way we can possibly be going downhill if Biohazard isn't here - providing us with our momentum down the hill. No, we only have enough momentum to push ourselves around the hill. Of course, this hypothesis is thwarted by this whole 'gravity' thing, but we can forget about that for now.

HoTS unfortunate departure countered Biohazard's laughable self-dismissal.

So we're back where we started. Downhill.

Right, but now we have Gracie and Aco.
And then redyugi left.
Damn.

Have I mentioned I don't find grace funny? Because I don't find grace funny.

this isn't a hate post or anything, just saying that when grace makes jokes i'm all :|

Grace hasn't even posted here?

I'm not trying to jump to her defense, I'm just curious as to what that has to do with anything. lol

Quote from: Pacman on September 25, 2011, 12:23:06 AM
Right, but now we have Gracie and Aco.
And then redyugi left.
Damn.

I'm flattered, but "now"? I was here before you. :o

Quote from: Pacman on September 25, 2011, 12:23:06 AM
Right, but now we have Gracie and Aco.
And then redyugi left.
Damn.

Also no disrespect to anyone mentioned in this post. But Halo is a few tiers higher on the hill momentum scale.

Shouldn't the final percentage be ? 0.002% if the final answer ? 0.00002?

It's also good to know that any given day you're more likely to die than to win the lotto.

If you win the lotto then invest all that money in the lotto again, I wonder what the likelyhood of winning another time would be.

I think it would be the same. The probability of winning MegaMillions is 1 in 175711536 (approximately 0.0000006%). This is assuming your first win was the result of purchasing only a single ticket: Provided you win a sum > $175,711,536 and then reinvest in 175,711,536  unique tickets, where $1 = 1 ticket, you'd  guarantee winning another jackpot (100%). That means winning twice in a row in such a way would be approximately equal to 0.000000006*1=0.000000006=0.0000006%, or the same.

If that didn't make sense, it's the same because buying 175,711,536 unique tickets  (the number of possible ticket combinations) guarantees winning and wouldn't alter the original probability of the first win for the final probability of multiple wins. (edited in these last few words.)

If you were to win the largest cash jackpot ever ($240 million) on your first win: The sum would be the second jackpot (this includes whatever your ~175m tickets contributed), and $64,288,464 of the original jackpot. I don't know what a single ticket contributes to the jackpot, so there is the chance that if too few people participate you could actually lose money. All in all, you still have to win the first jackpot.

Somebody asked a similar question in my stats class, but wondered if it'd be worth it to purchase as many unique tickets as you could afford if you're really rich. Not really, unless you ca hit that magic number.

Technically you would have a higher 'chance' of winning if you had more tickets because more of the pool is in your favor. The problem is, even if you bought thousands, or maybe even millions of tickets, there's just so many more tickets other people are purchasing that they still would most likely get it since there is still a large margin other then you. The concept I was getting at is if, well, if you won the first one, even if the mean amount between high chance and first chance is same percent chance, if you kept investing all your money over and over, eventually the chance would rise and it would create a wave effect. It would create an exponential effect, it would be low chance initially to win but over time it would be easier. Realistically though, if you kept winning, other people would lose faith and stop buying tickets so eventually it would be you regurgitating your own money.

I miss Halo. ._.

Quote from: Acolyte on September 25, 2011, 02:35:41 AM

Quote from: Pacman on September 25, 2011, 12:23:06 AM
Right, but now we have Gracie and Aco.
And then redyugi left.
Damn.

I'm flattered, but "now"? I was here before you. :o

I know that, but you came in just about as Halo left. I don't know, I wasn't there.
You're all lucky bastards, getting to meet Halo.

So, uh, did Crankeye carry any momentum?

Crankeye hasn't been a normal poster since 2006.

That.
Does not answer my question.

Well seeing as you have more posts than him and its been 5 years since he actually had any activity. No he doesn't affect the hill at all. Also the hill doesn't exist because it isn't relative to RMRK.
Everyone knows crankeye.org was the golden age.

No it wasn't. Dalton was there :/

He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

 

Quote from: Scalinger2 on September 25, 2011, 07:45:07 PM
Technically you would have a higher 'chance' of winning if you had more tickets because more of the pool is in your favor. The problem is, even if you bought thousands, or maybe even millions of tickets, there's just so many more tickets other people are purchasing that they still would most likely get it since there is still a large margin other then you. The concept I was getting at is if, well, if you won the first one, even if the mean amount between high chance and first chance is same percent chance, if you kept investing all your money over and over, eventually the chance would rise and it would create a wave effect. It would create an exponential effect, it would be low chance initially to win but over time it would be easier. Realistically though, if you kept winning, other people would lose faith and stop buying tickets so eventually it would be you regurgitating your own money.

I don't think you understand how the lottery works, you misunderstood completely what I said, and apparently you don't understand what you asked in your previous post.

regarding your final sentence: No, because if there are multiple winners the jackpot is split. Faith will never be an issue, though, because the I think people would be more likely to participate in the lotto if the jackpot is higher. On the off chance that too few people do participate, you will presumably lose money.

I think it's imprudent to invest all of your money into guaranteeing winning the lotto, anyhow. If you're able to spend $175,711,536 in a single go, do you really need the additional money?

Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 04:18:37 AM
He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

When he left. Him and Fu.

It probably lasted like, a week, but it was the best this place had ever seen.

Well, you could also just say (probability x jackpot) and that would get you the "net earnings" or w/e like they say in statistics.
It comes out to a very small number, smaller then the cost of the lottery ticket, therefore saying that it's not worth trying.
That's the con of the lottery but the pro I was saying earlier I guess I asked it wrong. It probably wouldn't work that way either like I said because there's a lot of factors with the lottery. Even if you did win a couple times and kept re-investing in it you wouldn't be gaining nearly as much as the beginning anyways.

Quote from: Malson on September 26, 2011, 05:01:26 AM

Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 04:18:37 AM
He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

When he left. Him and Fu.

It probably lasted like, a week, but it was the best this place had ever seen.

I'll agree, also Rasse and Chewey still posted ;9

Not necessarily, but basically yeah, you're right. You're probably able to determine ideal times at which to go "all in" in order to increase your chances of high profit, but in the end you don't know how it's going to be split or what the final jackpot will be. I also don't know how it's taxed, which can really fuck up your winnings.

I have no idea what the expected value is, but it's probably so small such that you can't abuse the system, or it's impractical to abuse the system. Maybe even if you were to abuse it, the MegaMillions is still taking in the profit, effectively covering their asses.

Going back to my long-time stance, it's not worth it.

Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 05:40:18 AM

Quote from: Malson on September 26, 2011, 05:01:26 AM

Quote from: Doctor Swordopolis on September 26, 2011, 04:18:37 AM
He wasn't in his "I'm furry and proud" stage, what would you recommend as the top of the hill?

When he left. Him and Fu.

It probably lasted like, a week, but it was the best this place had ever seen.

I'll agree, also Rasse and Chewey still posted ;9

Wait who is Dalton? Before my time I guess or did he/she change names? Rasse and Chewey were so awesome. I miss them.

Death                                                                                                                                             Trooper

i like them odds